Because it is hard to persuade people…

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“…Because it is hard to persuade people who think like this to switch sides, electoral strategists argue that chasing swing voters is pointless. The easiest extra votes come from the 40% of the electorate who typically stay at home in a presidential poll. Each side therefore concentrates on stirring up people who support it but might not vote. That raises the anger to a new pitch.”


“…Despair over Mr Trump has reached such an intensity among some Republicans that the usual rules about there being no swing voters may no longer apply.”

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21693924-prospect-trump-v-clinton-grim-look-carefully-and-2016-offers-faint-promise?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/battlelines

A dependable tell for a systems thinker…

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“A dependable tell for a systems-thinker as opposed to a goals-thinker is lots of failures along the way and lots of big wins too. Every time Trump ran for president and lost, he gained experience, name recognition in a new field, and important connections. Observers who see life from a goals perspective saw a three-time loser on his way to losing a fourth time. Systems thinkers saw a systems thinker acquiring experience and power in exactly the right way to maximize success.”


” It might be more accurate to see Trump’s persuasion as a result of his talent stack and not as a separate talent in itself.”


“When you learn to see the world in terms of systems, not goals, everything comes into focus.”

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/137749295801/trumps-talent-stack-systems-versus-goals

Everybody agreed that Trump’s main advantage is…

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“Everybody agreed that Trump’s main advantage is that he comes pre-corrupted.”


“Thomas Jefferson believed that the Constitution should expire after 19 years, so that the dead would not have dominion over the living. That fate seems to have arrived. The Americans are in constant debates with ghosts and their conversations with dead people are most powerful, most ferocious, at exactly the points where they are most nonsensical.”

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/10/white-man-pathology-bernie-sanders-donald-trump

My sense is that what we have…

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“My sense is that what we have here is a feedback loop. Does media attention increase a candidate’s standing in the polls? Yes. Does a candidate’s standing in the polls increase media attention? Also yes.


“And everything else which sways both journalists and voters in the same direction just increases the correlation. The media and the public and the candidates are embedded in a system where every part affects every other.”

http://www.niemanlab.org/2016/01/how-much-influence-does-the-media-really-have-over-elections-digging-into-the-data

There is yet another important psychological process…

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“There is yet another important psychological process working to help Trump: people with money and other trappings of success receive more favorable evaluations from others, regardless of how the success was achieved. This is because success creates positive attributions about the successful individual.”


“It is incongruent to believe that Trump is, on the one hand, rich and successful, and on the other hand, unintelligent, incompetent, ineffective, and not a good leader. ”


“To maintain cognitive consistency, people are motivated to infer intelligence and many other positive traits from the mere fact of success.”


“…In part, that’s because people carry around in their heads lay theories of the causes of good performance and use those theories to ascribe characteristics to high performing groups—or individuals.”


“But notice the conversations and events around you. Every day, you can see people’s statements being accorded undue status and weight because they are wealthy and successful, even in domains irrelevant to their presumed expertise.”


“Success causes people to be perceived as competent and smart, almost regardless of what they say or do, because of people’s desire to believe in a just world. To maintain logically consistent perceptions of the world, people attribute intelligence and skill to those who are successful.”


“Trump’s polling success rests at least in part on the perception that “he is a rich businessman” who therefore must be smart and a great leader. And that perception is not going away unless and until people attack his business record, not his incendiary language and ever-changing political positions.”

http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/donald-trump-perception-bias-success-election-polls/

In the field of persuasion the ranking…

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“In the field of persuasion, the ranking of power looks like this:


1. Identity always beats analogy.


2. Analogy always beats reason.


Trump spoke to our identity as Americans. Cruz spoke to an analogy of a TV show. Neither appealed to reason. Cruz wants to end this conversation, not engage in it. He can’t get into the weeds of his legal status without drawing more attention to it. And Trump already had the high ground by saying it could be a huge distraction as president. If you are Cruz, what do you do?


What you do is settle for a shark-jumping analogy and hope the world is paying attention to something else this week. Because that’s the only move available to you.”

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/136749788476/the-canadian-gambit-trump-persuasion-series